(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)
[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]
A little over two months ago, I took a look at the state of NRSC recruiting in the one open seat (Colorado) and the twelve states with Democratic incumbents, concluding, up to that point in time, that the NRSC was 0-for-13 in recruiting so far. Keep in mind that we’re approaching the dog days of summer, not a heavy recruitment period. (Note that during June-August of 2005, only five Senate candidates announced, all five of whom were Republican losers.) So where does the state of NRSC recruitment stand, and what has changed in the last two months?
(Much more below the fold.)
Colorado: New CO-GOP chief Dick Wadhams muscled the more moderate Scott McInnis out to make room for his good pal conservative “Backwards” Bob Schaffer, who will, barring any unforeseen events, be the Republican nominee for Senate. Schaffer then proceeded to have a stammering start to his campaign, embarrassing himself right from the start, before hiring a bunch of electoral losers to staff his campaign. Never mind that Democratic Congressman Mark Udall has a significant advantage in fundraising and a big head start in reaching out to voters. I suppose we could credit the GOP with an accomplishment for finding a living, breathing human being who has held office before and ostensibly has a base of support to run. But, with Colorado’s trending blue over the last few years, muscling out the more moderate choice for the more conservative one might not have been the best play.
Arkansas: Since Republican former Governor and current Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, arguably the only Republican to give Senator Mark Pryor a real challenge, ruled out a Senate bid, it also came out that Pryor saw better Q1 fundraising for his Senate re-election than Huckabee saw for his Presidential bid. So no Arkansas Republicans seem to be stepping up to the plate at present. Meanwhile, the new Chair of the AR-GOP, who should be out looking for challengers to Pryor, is instead getting himself in trouble with comments like “I think all we need is some attacks on American soil.” In a nutshell, as it stands now in Arkansas, the Green Party is doing better than the Republican Party when it comes to Senate recruitment.
Delaware: Nothing new then; nothing new now. Still zip from the DE-GOP.
Illinois: The NRSC met with wealthy businessman Steve Greenberg. He however turned down their entreaties and is considering a House bid, leaving political unknown Steve Sauerberg as the sole announced Republican candidate. Having lost one potential self-funder in Greenberg, expect the GOP to seek out another potential self-funder before writing off the seat and settling for token opposition.
Iowa: While Senator Harkin had a strong Q1, GOP Rep. Tom Latham barely raised a solid amount by House standards, much less Senate standards; and GOP Rep. Steve King raised next to nothing, with a scant amount for cash-on-hand. It’s getting safer to assume that Harkin won’t have a strong opponent. The Iowa Republican Senate primary could wind up being between businessman Steve Rathje, businessman Troy Cook, and part-time tae kwon do instructor Bob McDowell. Um, yeah.
Louisiana: Here’s the summary that I penned for Daily Kingfish a little less than a month ago:
Bobby Jindal is running for Governor. GOP Congressmen Charles Boustany and Jim McCrery have both taken their names out of the running. GOP Congressman Richard Baker has a whopping $66,000 cash-on-hand. And Jay Dardenne, who is already polling significantly behind the “vulnerable” [Senator Mary] Landrieu, is embarrassing himself. In fact, the only Republicans who have demonstrated any interest are Woody Jenkins and Suzanne Haik Terrell, the two Republicans Landrieu has already defeated.
Since this summary, the only development has been Karl Rove trying to get the Democratic state Treasurer to switch Parties to run against Landrieu. I suppose that even Rove doubts there are any strong Republican challengers. The LA-GOP and NRSC really don’t have much to show for all of Landrieu’s supposed vulnerability.
Massachusetts: A token opponent has stepped forward:
Jeff Beatty, who took less than 30% of the vote in a 2006 Congressional race and raised less than $50,000. The Congressional district Beatty ran in was the most favorable to Bush and least favorable to Kerry in 2004 of any of Massachusetts’ ten Congressional districts; so, if Beatty couldn’t crack 30% or manage any significant fundraising in that district, it’s unlikely that he’d be able to accomplish anything further statewide.
It’s not like the MA-GOP doesn’t have access to some known quantities: Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift, Kerry Healey, Andrew Card, Curt Schilling. But they’ll settle, for now, for Jeff Beatty.
Michigan: To plagiarize from the Delaware entry above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”
Montana: Only two Republicans have been suggested as having the capability to give popular Senator Max Baucus a challenge: former Governor Mark Racicot, who has been silent; and, GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, who CQPolitics characterized as “resisting GOP efforts to draft him into the race.” The CQPolitics article also notes that former Montana House Republican leader Michael Lange was considered a possibility until his obscene tirade against Governor Brian Schweitzer. For now, it’s all quiet on the Western front.
New Jersey: With known quantities like Christie Todd Whitman, Chris Christie, and members of the Kean family sitting out, it looks like there is an NJ-GOP Senate primary brewing between conservative assemblyman Michael Doherty and less-conservative real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook. Estabrook has the support of GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson, Kean family ties, and sizable personal wealth. Doherty also has the support of several notable New Jersey Republicans, as well as the apparent backing of NJ’s conservative mouthpieces. While Senator Frank Lautenberg should handily dispatch either, Estabrook’s personal wealth and more moderate positions (at least compared with Doherty) would likely make her the less easily-beatable opponent.
Rhode Island: To plagiarize from the Michigan and Delaware entries above: “Nothing new then; nothing new now.”
South Dakota: With Senator Tim Johnson’s recovery moving along steadily, South Dakota Republicans are beginning to step up to the plate. Two have indicated interest in a run: state representative Joel Dykstra and businessman Sam Kephart. With Tim Johnson’s existing popularity coupled with sympathy from his impressive recovery, it is doubtful that either of these challengers would be formidable, while far-right conservative Gov. Mike Rounds remains mum on possible Senate plans.
West Virginia: About a month ago, I summed up the situation in West Virginia:
With Shelley Moore Capito taking a pass on a Senate bid, Republicans are now looking to GOP Secretary of State Betty Ireland and multiple-time-loser John Raese to take on popular Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller. In 2004, Ireland squeaked to a 52-48 victory; and, in 2006, Raese lost to Senator Robert Byrd by a 64-34 thrashing. Not exactly rainmakers on the WV-GOP bench.
Nothing has changed since that point.
So, among the thirteen seats discussed here, ten states (Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia) currently offer no Republican opposition or only token opposition. Two states (New Jersey and South Dakota) see Republican opposition in the more-than-token but less-than-strong range. And one state (open seat Colorado) sees a Republican contender, though the race still favors the Democrat and is the likeliest of seats up for election in 2008 to switch control (from GOP to Democrat). With the dog days of summer ahead, the NRSC just doesn’t seem too concerned with candidate recruitment.
it’s extremely important to know that Ireland won, mainly becuase her democratic opponent was 90 year Ken Hechler, elected to congress in 1959, left in 1976 to run for governor. He lsot the primatry by a large margin, was such a sore loserr he ran a write campagin against nick Rahall. Then lost by another wide margin, ran again in 1978, in the acutally primary and narrowly lost. He was secretary of state from 1985-2001, in another fit against Rahall he ran agaisnt him 1990, but the seven term incumbent easily beat him.
Ken Heckler’s age and health were the main issue in the campaign. A capable, moderate, high profile Staet Senator probably could have beaten Ireland.
I just caught this article saying that Senator Thomas of Wyoming is in serious condition right now. Just thought that I would link the story for those interested.
http://thehill.com/l…
I’m sure that I speak for all of us when I say all of our thoughts and prayers go out to Senator Thomas and his family right now at this very difficult time.
Its amazing how quickly you can brush off three top-tier challengers in Louisiana. Just because you are wearing blinders when it comes to Landrieu’s vulnerability doesn’t mean that the GOP is having trouble in the state.
Richard Baker remains the number one candidate (he has always been number one, except of course future Governor Bobby Jindal). Polling also shows that he is beating Landrieu in areas of the state where their name ID is equal. His $66K CoH isn’t a formidable amount, but we’re also 17 months away from Election Day. For all the candidates last cycle who announced Fall ’05 or later, how much money did they have in June? If Baker decides to run, money will quickly flow in, and he would be the favorite in such a match-up.
Jay Dardenne is a statewide officeholder, but is largely unknown in the state. Polling in Louisana shows he has a 67% name ID, which is very low for a statewide official. This is most likely due to the fact that he won office in a special election. After finishing first in a crowded field in the primary, his oppponent for the run-off dropped out, effectively ending the campaign. He has never been introduced to the voters of the state as anything other than a face in the crowd. And since it was a special election, interest and turn-out was lower than normal. So even though he has a 67% name ID, the percentage of people who know enough about him to form an opinion is even lower.
Despite trailing significantly in name ID, polling put Dardenne 15 points down on Landrieu. Granted, those aren’t great numbers, but they’re a lot better than the 23 points down that Al Franken is running against Norm Coleman, and the 25 points down that Tom Allen is running against Susan Collins. Yet, bizzarely, you discount the strength of Dardenne’s potential candidacy on polling and polling alone, yet still consider Norm Coleman and Susan Collins to be vulnerable, despite the fact that both Franken and Allen have higher idenficiation in their respective states than Dardenne. This is clearly a case of selective analysis, purposely skewed to cheerlead for the Democratic Party. It is completely devoid of any logical consistency.
Finally, John Kennedy has been rumored to be a potential party-switcher for a few years now. Its not as if the GOP has exhausted their bench and are looking for Dems to challenge Landrieu; Kennedy’s name has constantly been at the top of speculative GOP candidates. Any recruitment effort that excluded him would simply be stupid; he’s a popular statewide official.
These are three top-tier challengers, who are all still potential candidates, and yet you brush them aside as if they were nothing. The intellectual dishonesty that you constantly present is amazing.
It seems unlikely that Baker runs in Louisiana. If he did run, Democrats would have a decent shot as his House seat as it is very similar to the won Melancon holds.